It’s Week 10 and we are back in the office. The lights are still on and we are firing on all cylinders. If you haven’t hopped on this bandwagon yet you simply hate making money. After another scorching hot Sunday last week our win percentage is up to 63% since starting a little more then a month ago. DID EVERY ONE HAVE A GOOD WEEK?
I have to admit those number even have me shocked, but the system and trends have been solid and consistent so if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. As always my picks are bolded along with my best bets of the week, and some other tips to look out for. Cheat sheet is at the bottom of the page as always. Spread the word you degenerate fucks. Without further a do… Week 10.
Week 10 Betting
Seattle -6 @Arizona (40.5) W
Minnesota -1.5 @ Washington (42.5) W
Green Bay @ Chicago (-5.5) (38) L
Pittsburgh -10 @ Indianapolis (45) W
LA Chargers @ Jacksonville (-3.5) W
NY Jets -2.5 @ Tampa Bay (43.5) W
Cincinnati @ Tennessee (-4.5) (40.5) L
New Orleans (-3) @ Buffalo (46.5) L
Cleveland @ Detroit (-11.5) (44) W
Houston @ LA Rams (-12) (46) L
Dallas @ Atlanta (-3) (50.5) L
NY Giants (-2.5) @ San Francisco (42) L
New England (-7.5) @ Denver (46.5) W
Miami @ Carolina (-9) (40) W
Thursday Night Fix
This is a pretty decent Thursday night game. Couple of divisional teams knocking boots. Who could forget the electrifying 6-6 tie these guys had last year? The Hawks have been bad against divisional opponents the past few years (8-6-1 since 2015). Neither team has been that good this year. I expect Arizona to play up and Seattle to start out slow. When it comes down to it a home underdog, getting 6 points, in a divisional matchup is just to sweet to resist. Over/Under set at 40.5 predicts a low scoring game and I don’t see it going any other way. If you wan to get cute with, teasing this game to Arizona +10 Over 34.5 might be the safest bet of the week.
Seattle 20 Arizona 16
I’ve been high on Chicago all year. They haven’t been great but they have been pretty consistent. coming off a bye week they’ve had more then enough time to prepare for Brett Hundley. Add in the fact that the Bears are 4-0 ATS at home this year. They haven’t been favored yet so it will be interesting to see how they respond. Green Bay just doesn’t have any type of fire power and just looked awful on Monday night. McCarthy has been doing more talking about Hundley chewing gum on the field then playing football. Dropping Martellus Bennet mysteriously has raised locker room questions and these guy flat out suck. Aaron Rodgers absence has been making him a serious contender for MVP, and Mike McCarthy hasn’t shown any ability to adjust to the adversity. Bears outright.
New Orleans has been rolling. Brees and Payton seem to have found their mojo again and I keep waiting for them to fall of the wagon. That might no happen but this week will at least be a hiccup for them. The Bills have been great at home for bettors this year (3-0-1). They have a clear home field advantage when people have to go up to that other country they have there in Buffalo. Keep an eye on the weather updates, showing a cold rain which benefits the Bills and will limit the Saints throwing game. Buffalo is 4-1 as underdogs this year and I see more of the same coming this week. Its the year of the home dogs folks. Do not sleep on that.
New England -7.5
Calling it my lock of the week. I am sick and tired of hearing everyone talking about Brady’s struggles in Denver. Sure that exists. Its been his worst place to play in his career., but every time they go there people say that and think that means he’s going to loose every time. The Pats are 6-6 in Denver under the Brady/Belichick reign, which means they still win games there to. Trends exist and they deserve a look but I got another trend for you. Belichick is 11-4 after a bye week, and if you don’t think he’s aware of their struggles in Denver and acted accordingly, your just naive. Don’t worry about the “Denver Affect” on Tom Brady this week. The Patriots are all hands on deck after starting slow and the rest of the league should be shitting in their compression shorts. Home field advantage will not be able to equalize how shitty Denver has been this year and this game will be over at halftime.
Stay The Fuck Away of the week (STFA)
Houston @ LA Ramms -12
The Rams have been incredible this year and I’m actually happy to see it. Houston has had a recent dumpster fire with Watson going down in addition to basically their entire defense. Even with all that, The Rams played out of their mind last week and put up about 200 points. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take this game lightly and let Houston keep it close some how. 12 points is just to much to bet on the Rams at this stage. Maybe down the line after they’ve proved to be more consistent, but for now, as I always say, don’t be a sucker and just stay away.
As always, heres your weekly look up the bulls ass, how the sausage is made, or whatever you want to call it.