Its another week in the greatest sport on earth, and theres no better way to watch then having everything at stake. It appears the code has been cracked. We finished last week 8-5-2 overall, bringing the season average up to 53%. Anyone who played it smart probably did a hell of a lot better then that. I consider it my duty to the human race to contribute in the only way i know how. without further a do, here are this weeks current vegas odds on all games, my picks, best bets, and advice. Cheat Sheet at the bottom
Miami @ Baltimore (-3) (37.5) L
Minnesota (-11) @ Cleveland (38) L
Chicago @ New Orleans (-9) (47.5) W
Atlanta (-4.5) @ NY Jets (46) W
Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-2)(46) W
San Francisco @ Philadelphia (-13) (46) P
Oakland @ Buffalo (-2.5) (45.5) L
Indianapolis @ Cincinnati (-10.5) (41) W
LA Chargers @ New England (-7) (49.5) W
Houston @ Seattle (-5.5) (45.5) L
Dallas (-2.5) @ Washington (50) W
Pittsburgh (-3) @ Detroit (45.5) W
Denver @ Kansas City (-7)(43) W
Carolina +2 Over 44
Both teams here have been wildly inconsistent. Odds makers have been bouncing back and forth almost every week on Carolina. They seem to have the biggest over reactions after every Sunday either way. Both Tampa and Carolina are looking for their first wins in over 2 weeks. On paper this game appears to be a toss up. the under seems low to me. I think this game will be more of a shoot out and Carolina has a better defense and Cam is more capable of doing damage then Jameis. When it comes down to it. Carolina has been a lot better on the road, and hasn’t lost when they’ve been under dogs this year. Gamblers have to trust the system and the trends.
New England -7
I’m not buying right back into the Pats just yet. They have been horrible ATS this year, especially at home. With that being said, Bill Bellichick and Matt Patricia finally put their big boy pants on last week and I don’t see them falling back into the whole they dug themselves at the start of the year. Ordinarily the Pats would be at least 10 pt favorites here, but with things going the way they have been they are getting a modest spread. This one is a no brainer. trust that New England has figured it out (like they have for 15 years) enough to handle Phillip Rivers. Pats by a million this weekend. This is without a doubt the safest bet of the week.
I have zero confidence in Baltimore this week. throw in the fact they will probably be missing two key players in Maclin and Wallace. Flacco already has a tough game ahead of him with a decent Dolphins defense, these losses will be huge. I love the fact that Miami will be starting Matt Moore. He has felt over looked and under appreciated all year. With the ball of sadness Jay Cutler out, i think Miami will be able to generate some offensive rhythm. At the end of the day Miami isn’t great but they have at least been pretty consistent all year. You don’t no what your gonna get out of the Ravens and you can guarantee it won’t be great. Miami has been good on the road, especially as underdogs. In the year of the underdog, you have to keep surfing that wave until it crashes.
STAY AWAY of the Week
Minnesota -9.5 v. Cleveland
PSA: This game is in England. Nothing good has come from any game overseas for gamblers. don’t go anywhere near this game. always bad to start your day with a loss especially when it kicks off at butt crack of dawn. Let those tea and crumpet having snowflakes enjoy some bullshit football. Just stay in bed, sleep off that hangover, and tune into this game in the second half as a warm up for all the god damn winners your gonna have later in the day.
Here is a spreadsheet of how teams have been doing this year. don’t look at any esp. garbage that just shows records and bullshit. I translated all the important information into degenerate language. Even if you don’t like my picks you can at least use this cheat sheet to break your bookie on your own.
Over 50% records are highlighted