It’s a new day, the sun has risen, and we’ve all taken our daily long look in the mirror asking why we do this to ourselves. We’ve licked our wounds from last week and its time to tee it up again. Week 7 people, and I got a good feeling about this one. There’s a lot of value underdog picks. So far this season underdogs are covering about 70%, most coming from home dogs. This season has been a bookies dream, they’ve been blasting us in the ass for 6 weeks now. Now its time for us losers to grease up our hands, get in there and doing a little blasting of our own. There’s only one way to do that soldiers, MY PICKS
|Kansas City||(5-1) (3-0 A)||-3||46.5|
|Oakland||(2-4) (1-2 H)|
|Tennesse||(3-3) (1-2 A)||-6||46.5|
|2-0||Cleveland||(1-5) (1-2 H)|
|Jacksonville||(3-3) (2-1 A)||-3||43.5|
|2-1||Indianapolois||(3-3) (3-0 H)|
|2-2||Cincinatti||(3-2) (2-0 A)|
|Pittsburgh||(3-3) (1-1 H)||-5.5||41|
|Baltimore||(3-3) (2-0 A)|
|3-2||Minnesota||(3-3) (3-1 H)||-5.5||39.5|
|N.Y. Jets||(4-2) (1-2 A)|
|3-2-1||Miami||(3-2) (1-0 H)||-3||38.5|
|3-2-2||Tampa Bay||(1-4) (0-2 A)|
|Buffalo||(4-1) (2-0 H)||-3|
|Carolina||(3-3) (3-0 A)||-3||40.5|
|4-2-2||Chicagio||(4-2) (3-0 H)|
|5-2-2||New Orleans||(3-2) (1-1 A)||-4.5||47.5|
|Green Bay||(3-3) (2-1 H)|
|5-3-2||Arizona||(1-5) (0-3 A)|
|L.A. Rams||(3-3) (1-2 H)||-3||47|
|Dallas||(2-3) (1-1 A)||-6||46.5|
|5-4-2||San Francisco||(4-2) (1-1 H)|
|6-4-2||Seattle||(2-3) (1-2 A)||-5.5||40|
|N.Y. Giants||(3-3) (0-2 H)|
|6-5-2||Denver||(2-2-1) (0-1 A)|
|L.A. Chargers||(2-3-1) (0-3 H)||-1||41.5|
|Atlanta||(2-3) (1-1 A)|
|7-5-2||New England||(2-4) (0-3 H)||-3.5||56|
|Monday||Washington||(2-3) (1-1 A)|
|8:30||Philadelphia||(4-2) (1-1 H)||-4.5||48.5|
Last week went 47% out of all the games, not great but Im not going to be a liar here. I am determined to bounce back. Money will be made this week.
Without further ado here’s the answer sheet for gamblers this week
Oakland +3 Over 46.5
The Raiders have been struggling in every aspect of the game. Nothing is going right. At first glance KC looks like the best bet here; coming off a loss. But Derek Carr is back and he knows he has to play huge tonight. I think he’ll play his best game tonight. As for Kansas City, its not easy to bounce back after a loss like they had last week. There offense looked totally out of sync and it’s hard to get that confidence back. They got picked apart on the ground and this week their facing a serious threat in that same aspect. If they don’t stop the run right off the bat they’ll be in big trouble when Carr is able to start opening up the throwing game. Home Underdogs in a Divisional game looks too good to not bet for me.
I don’t know what the fuck is going on with Zeke Elliot, but apparently he can play for the next couple weeks. With Dallas uncertain how long there going to have the best running back in the league, every game they do have him is a must win. San Fran has been better then Dallas ATS this year, and like I said before home dogs have been on fire this. This one just looks like a sucker bet to me this, everyone and their mother is taking this game for that very reason. Every amateur bettor is throwing away everything they know and just trying to follow the trend. Vegas however is smarter then that. The total bet slips purchased on this game are about 50/50. Even with that, the line jumped 1.5. That’s because 80% of the total money placed on those bets is on Dallas. That means all the real gamblers with real money are hammering Dallas. I’m idiot, so if I can steal a tip from people who know their shit, I’m going to do it.
This is my best bet of the weekend. Right now the Colts are 3-0 at home for gamblers. The public loves Jacksonville this week coming off a loss, because, apparently people love the Jags now. I love picking against the public any time they’re taking a team 70% of the time or higher, especially to a home underdog this year. Jacboby Brissett is really starting to come into himself. I love how he’s playing, gaining confidence every week. Their O line is fucking tissue paper, which scares me, but I still think they’ll be able to stick with the non-existent Jaguars offense.
NY Jets +3
Divisional games are usually the safest underdog picks. Everyone always says anything can happen in divisional games. I am really starting to think the Jets are at least a mediocre team, which is more then I will say about the Fins. Everyone is waiting for Josh McCown to come back to earth but I’m betting on him to stay unconscious this week. New York’s defense was giving Tom Brady trouble last week, they should be able to handle Smokin’ Jay Cutler this week. So far their ATS records are pretty identical (small sample size) but they’ve both been underdogs most of the time. The one time Miami has been favored they lost. With that trend between these two teams, the underdog is simply the better bet. Home field won’t be an advantage here. Jets will win this game outright, so ill take the New York Jets here, and thank you very much for those 3 extra points.